2024 NFL season sim: Predictions, surprises, playoff teams

Mon, Sep 2, 9:20 AM EDT • Seth Walder • espn • 11 analyses

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ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) simulated the 2024 NFL season, revealing surprising outcomes including the Chicago Bears making the playoffs and the Buffalo Bills struggling. The simulation highlighted key player performances, with rookie Caleb Williams leading the Bears and Joe Burrow guiding the Bengals to a division title. The Detroit Lions ultimately triumphed over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX, marking a historic victory for the franchise.

The Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons underperformed, failing to make the playoffs.
Rookie Caleb Williams had a standout season, leading the Bears to the playoffs.
The Lions won their first Super Bowl since 1957, defeating the Chiefs.

Caleb Williams | QB

Breakout

Week 1

30 pass TDs

10 interceptions

Williams finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in his rookie season.
He brought excitement to the Bears' offense, leading them to a 10-7 record.

Josh Allen | QB

Injury

Week 1

20 pass TDs

15 interceptions

Had his worst statistical season since early in his career due to a run-heavy offense.
The Bills finished with a disappointing 7-10 record.

Joe Burrow | QB

Week 1

35 pass TDs

8 interceptions

Led a strong passing attack, finishing in the top five in QBR.
Helped the Bengals secure the AFC North title.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR

Week 1

10 rec TDs

Despite being held in check during the Super Bowl, he was a key player throughout the season.
Contributed significantly to the Lions' success leading to their first Super Bowl win.

Jahmyr Gibbs | RB

Week 1

600 rec yards

5 rec TDs

800 rush yards

5 rush TDs